Though age itself becomes a factor when thinking about a long prediction. I don't know why the US government can't just let this guy age out. He's almost there.
If we consider the two independent, which is silly, we have 15.25% odds he is struck and out. 9.75% odds he is out without being struck. 46.36% odd he is struck but not out. 29.64% odds he is nither struck or out.
Maybe it would be fun for me to look at the charts and calculate a correlation and how dependent and independent they are, and then revise those numbers. Maybe later.
It's weird, I think Trump will go for a decapitation strike this time, but apparently many people think he will strike a lot of things (two carrier strike groups & lots of jets), but not the head of state? Or do they think US doesn't know where he is? Or do they think he's in a deep unstrikable bunker? We'll see I guess.
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Though age itself becomes a factor when thinking about a long prediction. I don't know why the US government can't just let this guy age out. He's almost there.
It is also worth noting that a strike against Iran by the end of March is super likely. https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by
If we consider the two independent, which is silly, we have 15.25% odds he is struck and out. 9.75% odds he is out without being struck. 46.36% odd he is struck but not out. 29.64% odds he is nither struck or out.
Maybe it would be fun for me to look at the charts and calculate a correlation and how dependent and independent they are, and then revise those numbers. Maybe later.
It's weird, I think Trump will go for a decapitation strike this time, but apparently many people think he will strike a lot of things (two carrier strike groups & lots of jets), but not the head of state? Or do they think US doesn't know where he is? Or do they think he's in a deep unstrikable bunker? We'll see I guess.