With the US now being tied up in Iran, the cartels aren't worried. They never feared the Mexican government. But they wouldn't topple it because they feared what the US would do. Now the US isn't going to leave Iran and leave Israel high and dry to go solve Mexico.

Meanwhile we have a sudden jump in odds of Israel starting a ground campaign in Lebanon. They have no problem getting distracted after starting something with an "ally" that can't be exited.