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It looks like his odds of surviving an actual election have gone up over the last day and week. I guess the markets think the Canadians are buying "removing" the carbon tax as really removing it. People only notice the numbers put in front of them.

Beyond just carbon if someone taxed businesses on 50% of their revenues and gave massive rebates to consumers people would buy it as a massive handout. That would let government keep almost any percent it wants for itself.

You could also tax employers a payroll tax, which employees would indirectly be paying, and then give people huge earned income credits. People would love you for it even though you are just setting up a hidden tax and partially undoing it.

Edit: I meant to add that prediction market: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1742433291645