Log in
| 1 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 1 |
Here are some compelling historical examples of this dynamic:
1. Austria-Hungary Baiting Germany into WWI (1914)
This is arguably the clearest example. Austria-Hungary wanted to crush Serbia after Franz Ferdinand's assassination, but feared Russian intervention. They secured Germany's "blank check" — unconditional military backing — before issuing Serbia an impossible ultimatum. Germany, believing the war would be localized, got pulled into a catastrophic continental conflict it hadn't fully anticipated. Austria-Hungary collapsed anyway, and Germany paid an almost incomprehensibly high price.
2. Britain and France Dragging the Ottoman Empire's Allies into Ruin (WWI again)
The Ottomans were enticed into WWI on the German/Austrian side with promises of territorial gains and modernization of their military. Instead, the war accelerated the complete dissolution of the Ottoman Empire — exactly the opposite of what they were promised.
3. Italy Baiting Austria into the War of 1866
Prussia, under Bismarck, essentially used Italy as a pawn against Austria. Italy joined the war expecting to gain Venetia and potentially more. Italy was militarily humiliated — losing both on land (Custoza) and at sea (Lissa) — and only received Venetia because Prussia won decisively in the north. Italy gained territory it couldn't win itself, but it was a humiliating arrangement that stung Italian national pride for decades.
4. Britain and France "Guaranteeing" Poland in 1939
After failing to stop Hitler earlier, Britain and France extended a security guarantee to Poland — which encouraged Polish leadership to hold firm against German demands over Danzig. When Germany invaded, the Western Allies declared war but provided essentially no meaningful military assistance to Poland. Poland was overrun in weeks, then partitioned with the USSR. The guarantee was real enough to embolden Poland but hollow enough to doom it.
5. The U.S. Encouraging the Hungarian Revolution (1956)
Radio Free Europe broadcasts encouraged Hungarians to believe the West would intervene militarily if they rose up against Soviet rule. Hungarians rose up; the West did not intervene. The USSR crushed the revolution brutally, and tens of thousands died or were imprisoned. The Hungarians had been effectively baited into a revolt with implied backing that never materialized.
6. The U.S. and Kuwait — Baiting Iraq? (1990)
A more debated case: U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie's meeting with Saddam Hussein just before the Kuwait invasion is often cited as giving Saddam a "green light" — or at least failing to warn him of consequences. Saddam may have believed the U.S. wouldn't intervene in an "Arab dispute." Whether intentional bait or diplomatic miscommunication, Iraq's invasion triggered a coalition war that devastated the country.
The pattern is remarkably consistent: the baited party overestimates the value of the alliance, underestimates the costs of war, and finds itself bearing a disproportionate burden of the consequences. The "baiter" often has much more limited skin in the game.
Don't get suckered into war kids. Just because your friends do it doesn't mean you have to.
Also, I got even older examples.
The Oldest Well-Documented Example: Sparta Baiting Corinth and Thebes into the Peloponnesian War (431 BC)
Sparta had its own reasons to fight Athens, but it was heavily pressured by its allies — particularly Corinth — who felt economically threatened by Athenian power. Sparta essentially let Corinth and other allies believe the war would be quick and decisive. Corinth bore enormous costs, its trade was disrupted for decades, and the war ended with neither a clear Spartan victory in any meaningful economic sense nor any real gain for Corinth. Sparta "won" but its allies were largely exhausted and worse off.
Older Still: Persia Baiting the Ionian Greek Cities into Revolt (499 BC)
The Ionian Revolt against Persia was instigated significantly by Aristagoras of Miletus, who had the backing — or so he implied — of mainland Greece. He traveled to Sparta and Athens seeking military support, got only modest Athenian and Eretrian help, and the Ionian cities revolted on the assumption that substantial allied support was coming. It wasn't. Persia crushed the revolt city by city, and Miletus was completely destroyed in 494 BC. The cities that followed Aristagoras paid a catastrophic price for a war that primarily served his political ambitions.
Even Older: Egypt Baiting the Hittites' Vassals — The Battle of Kadesh (1274 BC)
During Ramesses II's campaign, smaller vassal states of the Hittite Empire — many of whom had little genuine stake in the conflict — were marshaled into battle by the Hittite king Muwatalli II. The battle was essentially a draw, but the vassal city-states of Syria and Canaan bore the physical destruction of the campaigning on their territory. They were pulled into a great-power conflict between Egypt and Hatti that served neither of their interests, and the region suffered repeated devastation while both empires eventually exhausted themselves.
Possibly the Oldest Traceable Example: The Amarna Letters (~1350–1330 BC)
This is fragmentary but fascinating. The Amarna archive preserves letters from small Canaanite and Syrian city-state rulers to the Egyptian pharaoh, several of whom describe being drawn into conflicts by larger powers making promises of protection and military backing — promises that were never honored. Kings like Rib-Hadda of Byblos wrote desperately to Egypt after being effectively encouraged to hold out against enemies, only to be abandoned. He lost his city and likely his life. The dynamic is unmistakable even 3,300 years ago.
The Mythological Horizon: The Trojan War
If we allow sources that blend history and legend, the Trojan War tradition describes exactly this pattern. The smaller allied cities of Troy — Lycia, Thrace, Ethiopia in some traditions — were drawn in to fight on Troy's behalf in a war that was fundamentally about a Trojan prince's personal transgression. They suffered enormously for it. The Lycians in particular, led by the hero Sarpedon in the Iliad, are portrayed as doing most of the heavy fighting while the Trojans themselves vacillate. Sarpedon even delivers a famous speech asking bitterly why the Lycians are dying for Troy's war.
The Rib-Hadda case from the Amarna letters is probably our oldest historically documented example of the pattern — a smaller ruler encouraged to resist and hold out by a great power (Egypt), only to be abandoned when the cost of intervention became inconvenient. It's around 3,350 years old, and the dynamic is instantly recognizable.