The US government shutdown is likely to continue till at least the 15th. It's relatively unlikely for it to go longer than 30 days but it is possible.

It is pretty solidly estimated that the Fed will decrease the federal funds rate by a little at the end of October. This has been a long time assumption according to the market, locked in as early as mid-September. It is also estimated that they will do it again December 10th, locked in as market around the end of September. There is no certainty on what they will do in January, though no change is prevailing as the most likely.

This is likely new people are aware of, but as of this week it is now possible that Hamas may release all hostages by the end of the month. It's 50:50 odds. But that's up from a low if 9% odds. Similarly the odds of a ceasefire have increased this week. Slightly more likely than not, up from a low of 23% odds. The odds that Hamas will release some hostages is pretty locked in, up from a low earlier this week of 24%.

Tesla is pretty locked in to beat quarterly earnings.

It is considered likely that Eric Adams will endorse Cuomo. But FYI, Mamdani is locked it. He's been locked in since June 25th. Pretty much the entire time. It would take a scandal of some kind to make any other outcome happen.

Everyone is still very unsure when or if a TikTok sale will be announced. It basically won't happen this month. But when gauged against the end of the year it is 50:50. It seems like we've been at this forever.

It looks like there is delay in Google releasing Gemini 3.0. It is now unlikely we will get it by the 15th, and uncertain if they will release it by the 30th. Before it was estimated they would release it before the 30th with a possibility by the 15th.

Taylor Swift's album is estimated to not perform as well as prior estimated. It looks like The Fate of Ophelia is shaking out to be the most popular song.

Gavin Newsom is still the only seriously identified possibility for the Democratic nomination. When attempting to estimate electability it looks like his electability when up significantly since the last time I did that type of calculation. Now at 63% if he gets the nomination. That's up from 50%. But AOC still performs better at 70%. She's less of an Israeli shill so I support that.

JD Vance has a score of 50% BTW. Marco at 75%? We are dealing with some absurdly small numbers to make that calculation. They are both Israeli shills so it doesn't matter anyway.