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It looks like Rodrigo Paz is likely to win. This would be replacing Luis Arce. Luis Arce is a member of the Movement for Socialism.
This is after a recent upset this week where Rodrigo went from 0.5% odds on Polymarket to nearly 80% odds, after winning the first round with 30% of the vote.
https://polymarket.com/event/bolivia-presidential-election?tid=1755870299478
Paz wants to do a deep state cut similar to Milei and Trump.
He has promised to lower taxes and reduce or eliminate tariffs.
On the less realistic end, he has proposed a 50-50 model. The federal government would give up half of its resources and send it immediately to regional governments. I think that one is going to be easier said than done. You would have to cut half your federal government first. If you are Milei that’s possible. But if after you succeed at that, instead of lowering taxes you would be forwarding it to local governments. Those local governments are likely to be as inefficient and wasteful as their federal government IMO. The anarchist/libertarian/Hayekian in me thinks that once a government program is cut, the private market will step in and reveal the program wasn’t needed at all. It seems to me if you have the political will to entirely change the administration you have almost all the political will needed to end it entirely.
What is cool is his VP pick is a former police captain who helped clean up police corruption. So this should be good for anti-corruption.
Downsides:
Apparently he’s for carbon bonds.
It looks like the second runner-up with 23% odds according to Polymarket is a slightly softer version of the same. So the story is Bolivia is going the route of Milei to some degree with 99% odds between them.
The difference is that Tuto wants closer ties to the IMF. Other than that he also looks pretty solid. So it looks like Bolivia has a good future ahead for it. They are getting one version of Milei or another.
