This week Gavin Newsom peaked above 30% for likelihood of getting the Democrat nomination. The next most likely is AOC at 12% odds.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, JD Vance has 54% odds of getting the nomination, with the next closest being Marco Rubio at 9.8%. Unlike Newsom recently crossing 30%, there hasn’t been significant movement in Republican odds for some time.

For the general election, JD Vance sits at 27% odds and Newsom at 19%. Doing a little math, we see that Vance has a 50% chance of winning if he gets the nomination, while Newsom has a 56% chance. Likely the biggest factor is party alignment. The trend is that parties win elections and politicians take the victory.

Looking at one more market, Democrats are estimated to win the election with a 54% likelihood. That means Newsom edges out the party baseline by two points. Republicans sit at 46%, with Vance outperforming the party baseline by four points.

Double-checking with the next candidates, Rubio shows 51% electability and AOC 75%.

A couple of points need to be made about doing this kind of math with lower-value markets. If any source number is under 10% on Polymarket, these calculations aren’t very accurate. First, there’s a loss of resolution. Second, there isn’t enough active trading in low-probability outcomes for it to be “an efficient market” and thus reliable. The Rubio number is basically worthless.

The AOC number, though, is strong enough to be interesting despite the expected error. I could see it. AOC is significantly more likable than Newsom. Hell, I’d vote for AOC just to get someone who isn’t an Israel shill for once. I think a lot of Republicans are done with Israel owning the party and would jump ship. Typically, if you can get even 3% of the other party to flip, that’s a 6-point swing. That wins an election. And I think there are more than 3% of Republicans fed up with Israel owning the Republican party.

If Democrats swap their preferred nominee, I’ll vote for her. I don’t agree with her on economics, but she can’t do worse than Biden, and we survived that. Not contributing to genocide and reclaiming ownership of our country is more important than slightly less ideal economics. People make the economy. That's why it's never that bad or that good no matter who is in charge. Absolutely worth it to vote for AOC.

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-wins-2028-us-presidential-election