"I’ll start with households. Total debt relative to disposable income is lower than it was a year ago, but still high by historical standards. Despite lower interest rates, signs of financial stress have risen over the past 12 months, particularly among households without a mortgage. For example, the share of these households that are behind on credit card or auto loan payments has continued to go up.
Among households with a mortgage, 60% are facing renewal this year or in 2026. Most of those renewing will see their payments rise because they took out their mortgage during the pandemic when rates were very low. But the average increase will be smaller than what we expected a year ago."
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"A strength of our financial system is that Canadian banks are well positioned to absorb higher credit losses. Banks have increased their capital buffers in recent years and, more recently, they’ve increased provisions for credit losses, bolstering their resilience. Liquidity levels remain high, and bank access to funding remains strong. But if credit losses occur on a large enough scale, banks could cut back on lending in response. Struggling households and businesses would have less access to credit to get through tough times. This cycle could exacerbate the economic downturn."
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Given that their Agenda for the end of the decade is "you will own nothing and you will be happy", along with 15-minute cities, this seems to be a golden opportunity for them to advance that agenda fully.
Taking into account that their modus operandi is always promblem-reaction-solution, this release of information by the Bank seems to indicate that the housing crisis will worsen markedly so that the aforementioned cities model can be offered as a shiny and beautiful solution once the situation becomes desperate.
Of course, there is also the element of digital currency, which can also come as a solution to a liquidity crisis, which can ALSO be triggered by systemic failure in the banking system.
Obviously if people own their homes, that agenda falls apart. But if mortgages become unavailable due to the banking system falling apart, then suddenly over a 5-year period, most people with real estate will have to liquidate since they would be unable to either pay it off fully or get another loan. This looks to tie in perfectly with the Agenda 2030, 15-minute cities model. But obviously by then valuations have crashed to literal fire sale levels.
Basically I'm trying to guesstimate the GET OUT BY THEN date for real estate owners. You might be able to get away with keeping your house if you manage to pay it off once mortgages become unavailable, but your neighborhood will likely empty out, and over a few years, infrastructure would then decay in abandonment, since there would not be anywhere near enough property tax to fund anything on the municipal level. At that point, there are no buyers for your home, and unless it's a homestead, continued inhabitation will become very, very inconvenient to say the least.
Who else has thoughts on what's coming down the pipe, and most essentially, WHEN the dominoes start falling?
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The report is here (web): https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/opening-statement-20250508/
And here (PDF): https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/opening-statement-080525.pdf
Highlights (selected by the author of this post):
"I’ll start with households. Total debt relative to disposable income is lower than it was a year ago, but still high by historical standards. Despite lower interest rates, signs of financial stress have risen over the past 12 months, particularly among households without a mortgage. For example, the share of these households that are behind on credit card or auto loan payments has continued to go up.
Among households with a mortgage, 60% are facing renewal this year or in 2026. Most of those renewing will see their payments rise because they took out their mortgage during the pandemic when rates were very low. But the average increase will be smaller than what we expected a year ago."
=================
"A strength of our financial system is that Canadian banks are well positioned to absorb higher credit losses. Banks have increased their capital buffers in recent years and, more recently, they’ve increased provisions for credit losses, bolstering their resilience. Liquidity levels remain high, and bank access to funding remains strong. But if credit losses occur on a large enough scale, banks could cut back on lending in response. Struggling households and businesses would have less access to credit to get through tough times. This cycle could exacerbate the economic downturn."
===================
Given that their Agenda for the end of the decade is "you will own nothing and you will be happy", along with 15-minute cities, this seems to be a golden opportunity for them to advance that agenda fully.
Taking into account that their modus operandi is always promblem-reaction-solution, this release of information by the Bank seems to indicate that the housing crisis will worsen markedly so that the aforementioned cities model can be offered as a shiny and beautiful solution once the situation becomes desperate.
Of course, there is also the element of digital currency, which can also come as a solution to a liquidity crisis, which can ALSO be triggered by systemic failure in the banking system.
Obviously if people own their homes, that agenda falls apart. But if mortgages become unavailable due to the banking system falling apart, then suddenly over a 5-year period, most people with real estate will have to liquidate since they would be unable to either pay it off fully or get another loan. This looks to tie in perfectly with the Agenda 2030, 15-minute cities model. But obviously by then valuations have crashed to literal fire sale levels.
Basically I'm trying to guesstimate the GET OUT BY THEN date for real estate owners. You might be able to get away with keeping your house if you manage to pay it off once mortgages become unavailable, but your neighborhood will likely empty out, and over a few years, infrastructure would then decay in abandonment, since there would not be anywhere near enough property tax to fund anything on the municipal level. At that point, there are no buyers for your home, and unless it's a homestead, continued inhabitation will become very, very inconvenient to say the least.
Who else has thoughts on what's coming down the pipe, and most essentially, WHEN the dominoes start falling?