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What I fear is a quasi-victory-defeat where we don't actually learn anything. We topple their government. Then we occupy the territory and inherent all of their problems for 30 years. That's a losing condition because it's not a good outcome for us. But because the current leadership in Iran "lost more" it's a victory.

Victory means you get a good outcome for yourself. This is why the Iranian's can guarantee our defeat. We can't win. The only real victory would be going directly home with zero negotiations and developing enough of a spine to tell Israel, "we don't help you when we don't feel like it." Then we'd be walking away with an improved condition.